Opportunity Zone feasibility under OZ 2.0: a lender's guide

    Updated October 26, 2026
    18 min read

    Opportunity Zone equity is generally welcome in a capital stack. It is long-dated, subordinated and paid in cash. What makes an Opportunity Zone project harder to underwrite is not the equity. It is the timing and eligibility rules that come with it, and in 2026 and 2027 those rules are changing underneath projects already in the pipeline.

    Terms are defined in the Opportunity Zone glossary.

    This guide sets out what changed with the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (Public Law 119-21, signed July 4, 2025). It explains how the 2027 map and the end of the 2018 map interact, and what a credit officer should require before relying on a feasibility study for a project with an Opportunity Zone fund in its ownership chain. Each rule is cited to its primary source. Where we rely on practitioner commentary, we say so.

    Executive summary

    1. The closing date now determines the rule set. Gains invested on or before December 31, 2026 follow the original regime (OZ 1.0). Investments after that date follow the permanent regime (OZ 2.0). The two differ on deferral, step-up, eligible tracts and reporting.
    2. Map risk is real and dated. The 2018 zones end on December 31, 2028. In 2018 zones that are not redesignated, property acquired after December 31, 2026 generally cannot qualify. Until Treasury certifies the 2027 map, nominated tracts are contingent.
    3. Size the loan without the tax benefit. The benefit accrues to investors. Debt should be sized on project cash flow alone, and the feasibility study should show the project working with the benefit removed.
    4. The binding constraints are timing and eligibility, not tax law. They are:
      • the 30-month substantial-improvement window;
      • the 31-month working-capital plan;
      • the fund's 10-year hold against the loan's maturity;
      • SBA ownership rules.
    5. Rural zones are the strongest new incentive and the hardest demand call. A Qualified Rural Opportunity Fund earns a 30% basis step-up, and existing buildings meet the improvement test at 50% of basis. Rural demand cannot be read from national averages.

    1. The rule set has split in two

    The original program came from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and the final regulations in Treasury Decision 9889. It continues to govern investments made through December 31, 2026. The 2025 law made the program permanent for investments after that date, with new designation rounds every ten years.

    FeatureOZ 1.0 (invested on or before Dec 31, 2026)OZ 2.0 (invested after Dec 31, 2026)Underwriting implication
    Deferral endEarlier of an inclusion event or Dec 31, 2026Earlier of disposition or five years after investmentOZ 1.0 investors owe tax on deferred gain with their 2026 returns, due in April 2027
    Basis step-up10% at five years and 5% more at seven; effectively unavailable for investments after 202110% after five years; 30% for a Qualified Rural Opportunity FundRural fund economics are materially stronger
    10-year exclusionAvailable for dispositions through Dec 31, 2047Retained; basis frozen at fair market value on the 30th anniversaryNo forced sale at year 10; the exit window is wide
    Eligible tracts2018 designations (2010 tracts)2027 designations (2020 tracts)Tract status must be checked in both maps
    Low-income test80% of median family income or 20% poverty; contiguous tracts allowed70% of median family income, or 20% poverty and at most 125% of median family income; contiguous tracts repealed25,332 tracts eligible for 2027, against more than 41,000 under the original test (secondary source: Eversheds Sutherland)
    Substantial improvement100% of basis within 30 months100%; 50% in entirely rural zonesRural rehabilitation pencils more easily
    ReportingForms 8996 and 8997New statutory fund and business reporting with penalties (IRC §§6039K, 6039L, 6726)Reporting covenants belong in the loan agreement

    Sources: IRC §1400Z-2 as amended by P.L. 119-21 §70421; Notice 2026-40 §§4.01–4.02; Notice 2026-55 §2.01; Rev. Proc. 2026-14 §2.02(3); Treas. Reg. §1.1400Z2(d)-2(b)(4).

    Notice 2026-40 adds three transition rules that matter to lenders:

    • No re-deferral. Gain included on December 31, 2026 under the original rules cannot be reinvested in a fund for a second deferral.
    • The 180-day window still applies. Gains realized before, on or after December 31, 2026 can still qualify under the new rules if invested on or after January 1, 2027 within the applicable 180-day period.
    • The original exclusion survives. The 10-year exclusion for original-regime investments survives the 2026 inclusion (secondary: practitioner summaries of the notice).

    Implication. A sponsor still raising equity in late 2026 is choosing between regimes. The choice changes the investors' tax calendar and their appetite for an early exit. Ask which regime the fund's investors are in before you model distributions.

    2. The 2027 map, the 2018 map, and the overlap

    The 2027 map is built on 2020 census tracts. Rev. Proc. 2026-14 lists 25,332 eligible tracts, of which 8,334 are entirely rural. Each state may designate up to 25% of its eligible tracts, rounding up. States with fewer than 100 eligible tracts may designate 25, and states with fewer than 25 may designate all of them. Existing 2018 zones do not count against the 2027 cap.

    The designation calendar:

    1. Nominations. The window opened July 1, 2026. After extension, the last day to submit or modify nominations was October 28, 2026.
    2. Certification. Treasury must certify by November 27, 2026, or by December 28, 2026 with extension.
    3. Final list. The IRS expects to publish the designated list before January 1, 2027.
    4. Term. Designations take effect January 1, 2027 and run through December 31, 2036.

    The 2018 zones run through December 31, 2028 (Puerto Rico: December 31, 2027). For two years, a location can be a zone in one map and not the other, and the date the property is acquired decides which map governs.

    The rule that catches projects. A 2018 zone that is not redesignated has no "applicable start date" under the new law. Property acquired there after December 31, 2026 therefore generally cannot be qualified business property. There are two exceptions (Notice 2026-40 §5.01):

    • Working-capital plan. The property is acquired under a written working-capital plan adopted by December 31, 2026. At least 10% of the planned working capital must be received, and at least 5% spent, by that date.
    • Replacement property. The property is ordinary-course replacement or modernization property, not an expansion.

    A second, less obvious trap runs the other way. A tract that is new for 2027 has an applicable start date of January 1, 2027. Under the new rules, property must be acquired after the zone's start date. A closing in December 2026 in a tract that only enters the map in 2027 generally will not produce qualifying property. Confirm exact timing with tax counsel.

    Location statusAcquisition on or before Dec 31, 2026Acquisition after Dec 31, 2026
    Zone in both mapsQualifies under the original rules (if otherwise compliant)Qualifies under the new rules
    2018 zone onlyQualifies under the original rulesGenerally does not qualify (plan or replacement exceptions only)
    New 2027 zoneGenerally does not qualifyQualifies once designated
    Nominated, not yet certifiedDepends on 2018 statusContingent on certification

    Implication. Make certification of the tract a condition of closing for any post-2026 closing. For projects in 2018-only tracts, ask for the working-capital plan and evidence of the 10% / 5% thresholds before December 31, 2026, or assume the tax benefit is lost.

    Screen a location against both maps →

    3. How Opportunity Zone equity behaves in the capital stack

    From a credit perspective, Opportunity Zone equity is credit-positive. It is cash, it sits below the debt, and its investors want to hold for at least ten years. It lowers loan-to-cost and supports leverage. The friction comes from the investors' tax objectives, which do not always align with a lender's.

    Investor objectiveLender objectiveWhere they collideWhat to negotiate
    Hold at least 10 years for the exclusionLoan maturity of 5 to 10 years; refinancing at maturityMaturity falls before the investors' exitExtension options; refinance assumptions in the base case
    Avoid inclusion eventsLender remedies, transfers and cash trapsSome lender actions can trigger investor taxCounsel review of transfer and remedy provisions
    Return capital through refinancing rather than saleAmortization, cash sweeps, distribution limitsDebt-funded distributions reduce coverageDistribution tests tied to debt yield or DSCR
    Stay compliant with fund and business testsFlexibility to use cash and reservesIdle cash can break the asset testsReserves sized and documented under the working-capital plan

    The tax benefit belongs to the investors, not to the borrower. It does not service debt and it does not cure a shortfall. A credit memorandum that counts it as credit support has made an error.

    Implication. Underwrite the equity's reliability, not its tax status. Is it fully committed? Is it funded at closing or in stages? What happens to the project if investors cannot use the benefit because the tract loses status or compliance fails?

    4. Underwriting an Opportunity Zone project

    Debt sizing

    Size the loan on stabilized net operating income and the lender's coverage and leverage constraints. Ignore the tax benefit. The feasibility study should present a base case, a downside case, and a case in which the Opportunity Zone benefit is lost entirely, for example because the 2027 status does not materialize or the improvement deadline is missed. If the project only works with the benefit, the benefit is load-bearing and the investor equity is at risk of not funding.

    Construction schedule against the compliance clock

    Two clocks run from acquisition:

    1. Substantial improvement. For an existing building, additions to basis within 30 months must exceed the building's adjusted basis, excluding land (Treas. Reg. §1.1400Z2(d)-2(b)(4)). In an entirely rural zone the threshold is 50% of basis.
    2. Working-capital safe harbor. Cash held for development qualifies only under a written plan with a schedule, normally up to 31 months, that the business substantially follows (Treas. Reg. §1.1400Z2(d)-1(d)(3)(v)).

    A project whose construction draw schedule runs beyond either window puts the investors' benefit at risk. That, in turn, puts at risk the equity contributions the lender is counting on. Map the draw schedule against both clocks month by month.

    The fund and business tests

    The fund must hold at least 90% of its assets in qualified property. Its operating business must meet these tests:

    • at least 70% of its tangible property in the zone is qualified;
    • at least 50% of its gross income comes from active conduct of a business in the zone;
    • a substantial portion of its intangible property, at least 40%, is used in that business;
    • less than 5% of its assets are nonqualified financial property.

    Two structures commonly fail:

    • Triple-net leases. Treas. Reg. §1.1400Z2(d)-1(d)(5)(ii)(B) provides that merely entering into a triple-net lease is not the active conduct of a business. A single-tenant net-lease structure therefore needs a different ownership model.
    • Excluded businesses. A golf course, country club, massage parlor, hot tub or suntan facility, racetrack or gambling facility, or a store whose principal business is selling alcohol for off-premises consumption cannot be a qualified business (IRC §1400Z-2(d)(3)(A)(iii)). Check fuel and convenience concepts with substantial packaged-liquor sales.

    Reporting covenants

    The 2025 law adds annual fund reporting (IRC §6039K), statements from businesses to funds (§6039L) and penalties (§6726). Proposed regulations (REG-116506-25) were published on September 11, 2026. The required data reportedly include asset values on testing dates, industry codes, census tracts, residential units and approximate employment. Practitioner summaries report penalties of $500 per day, capped at $10,000 per return, or $50,000 for funds above $10 million in gross assets.

    Add a covenant requiring the borrower to deliver its fund and business reporting to the lender. A penalty is a cash claim on the project.

    Exit

    The 10-year exclusion has no forced sale date, and basis is frozen at fair market value on the 30th anniversary. The fund is therefore not compelled to sell at year 10. It is, however, motivated to sell or recapitalize after year 10 rather than before. Model a refinance at loan maturity and a sale after year 10. Do not assume a sale before year 10 unless the investors have said they will accept the tax cost.

    5. Program-specific considerations

    SBA 7(a) and 504. This is the hardest combination, and the reason is SBA eligibility, not tax law.

    • The fund cannot borrow. A fund is an investment vehicle, and a business that only holds and leases real estate is passive. Both are ineligible borrowers (13 CFR 120.110). The workable structure is an eligible passive company leasing to an operating company, with the fund as a minority, non-controlling investor.
    • Owners of 20% or more must guarantee (13 CFR 120.160(a)).
    • Every direct and indirect owner must be a U.S. citizen or national (SBA Procedural Notice 5000-876626, effective March 1, 2026). That includes every fund investor.
    • 504 job ratios. For 504 loans approved on or after October 1, 2025, the ratio is one job per $95,000 guaranteed, with CDC portfolio averages up to $150,000 in designated areas including Opportunity Zones (FR Doc. 2025-19072). Full guide to SBA loans in Opportunity Zones →

    USDA Business & Industry. The program fits rural zones well. Passive real estate and investment entities are ineligible borrowers, so the fund must be an equity holder, not the borrower (7 CFR part 5001).

    LIHTC. LIHTC is highly compatible. One documented example is the Parramore Oaks development in Orlando, one of the first to combine Opportunity Zone equity with 9% Housing Credits. It had a total development cost of about $28 million, including $20.8 million of combined Housing Credit and OZ equity (NCSHA/EIG profile). Restricted rents limit exit value, which reduces the value of the 10-year exclusion. 2027 HUD Qualified Census Tracts and Difficult Development Areas can raise eligible basis to 130%.

    New Markets Tax Credits. The tract must qualify under both programs. The 2027 OZ test, at 70% of median family income, is narrower than the NMTC test at 80%. The NMTC seven-year compliance period and its unwind must not trigger an inclusion event for fund investors.

    Historic tax credits and C-PACE. Both are compatible, with documented precedents. One practitioner warns that the common historic-credit master-lease structure "generally fails the fund's 90% asset test" (Sherbert Group). C-PACE liens require lender consent.

    The stacking matrix: OZ with NMTC, LIHTC, HTC, SBA, USDA and C-PACE →

    6. Rural zones

    For investments after December 31, 2026, a Qualified Rural Opportunity Fund holds at least 90% of its assets in zone property located in a zone comprised entirely of a rural area. A rural area excludes any city or town above 50,000 people and the urbanized area adjacent to it. Such a fund earns a 30% basis step-up after five years. The reduced 50% substantial-improvement threshold has applied since July 4, 2025 to the 3,309 existing zones the IRS classified as rural (Notice 2025-50). It also applies to entirely rural 2027 zones.

    The incentive is real. The demand risk is also higher. Small trade areas, a thin base of comparables and seasonal or single-employer economies mean a national benchmark tells you little. A rural Opportunity Zone feasibility study needs primary trade-area work: competitive inventory counted on the ground, traffic and visitation data, and employer and population trends at the county and tract level.

    Rural Opportunity Zones, QROFs and USDA lending →

    7. State tax treatment

    Federal benefits do not automatically carry to state income tax, and that affects how much equity a project can raise.

    • California: the Franchise Tax Board states California "does not conform to the deferral and exclusion."
    • New York: excluded gain must be added back.
    • Massachusetts: from tax year 2026, counts only zones located entirely within the Commonwealth.
    • Colorado: from tax year 2027, adds back excluded gain beyond amounts invested in a Colorado-qualified fund.
    • South Carolina: has not conformed to the new provisions.
    • North Carolina: its position is unresolved.

    State tax conformity, state by state →

    8. What a feasibility study must contain for an Opportunity Zone project

    A standard feasibility study answers whether the market supports the project. For an Opportunity Zone project, a lender should also require a compliance annex.

    1. Tract verification in both maps. Check the exact parcel, not the tract centroid, against the 2018 boundaries (2010 tracts) and the 2027 status (2020 tracts), with the status date and source.
    2. Regime determination. State the expected closing and investment dates, and which regime applies to the investors.
    3. Timeline compliance. Lay out the substantial-improvement test (100%, or 50% if rural) and the working-capital plan against the construction schedule and draw schedule.
    4. Asset and income tests. Show how the structure meets the 90% fund test and the business's 70% / 50% / 40% / 5% tests through construction and stabilization.
    5. Exit valuation beyond year 10. Show the investors' expected hold, and value the property at that horizon as well as at loan maturity.
    6. Sensitivity with the benefit removed. Re-run the base case assuming the tax benefit is lost, and show whether the committed equity still funds.
    7. Program overlay. Document SBA, USDA, LIHTC, NMTC or historic-credit eligibility where those programs are in the stack.
    8. State tax treatment. Identify where the investors file, and the effect on equity raised.

    What an Opportunity Zone feasibility study covers →

    9. What the evidence says about Opportunity Zone markets

    Scale and concentration. Qualified Opportunity Funds held $112 billion of zone property at the end of tax year 2024. Investment reached 77% of designated tracts. The top fifth of tracts hold about 90% of the dollars, an average of about $78 million each against $158,000 in the bottom fifth (Treasury Office of Tax Analysis, Working Paper 128).

    What the money bought. About 77% of fund investment in zone businesses was in real estate and rental and leasing; accommodation and food services took 3%.

    The causal effects. The research literature finds real but modest effects:

    • Housing: residential addresses rose about 3% relative to comparable tracts.
    • Jobs: workplace jobs rose about 1.3%, but most of that gain was offset by losses in nearby low-income tracts.
    • Prices: no measurable effect on house prices, although land prices in redevelopment parcels rose.
    • Selection: investment flowed disproportionately to tracts that were already improving.

    Implication. A designation is not a demand driver. Underwrite the trade area as you would any other location, and treat claims that the zone itself will lift rents or absorption with caution.

    10. Red flags for credit officers

    • The pro forma or investment memorandum counts the tax benefit toward returns used to justify leverage.
    • The tract is shown as "an Opportunity Zone" without saying which map, the status date or the source.
    • A post-2026 closing in a tract that is nominated but not yet certified, with no closing condition.
    • A 2018-only tract with a post-2026 acquisition and no working-capital plan adopted and funded by December 31, 2026.
    • A construction schedule longer than the substantial-improvement or working-capital window.
    • A single-tenant triple-net lease presented as the fund's operating business.
    • An SBA application in which the fund owns 20% or more, or controls the borrower, or in which investor citizenship has not been traced.
    • An exit assumed before year 10 with no explanation of the investors' tax cost.
    • Market support that cites the zone designation as a demand driver.

    Key dates

    DateEvent
    Nov 23, 2026Comments due on Notice 2026-55
    Nov 27 / Dec 28, 2026Treasury certification deadline (standard / extended)
    Before Jan 1, 2027IRS designated list expected
    Dec 31, 2026OZ 1.0 deferred gain included; working-capital plan deadline for 2018-only tracts
    Jan 1, 20272027 zones take effect; OZ 2.0 investment rules apply
    Dec 31, 2027Puerto Rico 2018 zones end
    Dec 31, 2028Other 2018 zones end
    Dec 31, 2036First 2027 designations end
    Dec 31, 2047Last date for OZ 1.0 10-year exclusion dispositions

    How we verify this page

    Author
    Robert Mitchell
    Updated
    October 26, 2026
    Sources
    Numbered list below

    Sources

    Primary:

    1. IRC §§1400Z-1, 1400Z-2, 6039K, 6039L and 6726, as amended by P.L. 119-21 §70421.
    2. Rev. Proc. 2026-14 (April 6, 2026).
    3. IRS Notices 2025-50 (September 30, 2025), 2026-40 (June 18, 2026) and 2026-55 (September 22, 2026); IR-2026-45.
    4. REG-116506-25, 91 FR 57968 (September 11, 2026).
    5. Treas. Reg. §§1.1400Z2(d)-1 and 1.1400Z2(d)-2.
    6. 13 CFR 120.110 and 120.160; SBA Procedural Notice 5000-876626; FR Doc. 2025-19072.
    7. 7 CFR part 5001.
    8. Treasury Office of Tax Analysis, Working Paper 128.

    Secondary, as labeled in the text:

    1. Eversheds Sutherland (eligible-tract comparison).
    2. Practitioner summaries of Notice 2026-40 and of the reporting penalties.
    3. NCSHA/EIG (Parramore Oaks).
    4. Sherbert Group (historic-credit master leases).
    5. Research summaries cited by Treasury (market effects).

    This guide is general information for lenders and sponsors. It is not tax, legal or investment advice. Confirm structure with tax counsel and eligibility with the official sources.