SBA 504 Self-Storage Case Study: 256 Davidson Highway, Concord, North Carolina, Not Feasible Where Cheap Land Meets Falling Rents

Study at a Glance

Determination

A new 439-unit climate-controlled self-storage facility at 256 Davidson Highway is not feasible at 2026 construction cost and current Charlotte-metro rents under SBA 504. The project would cost $7.4 million, or about $181 a net rentable square foot. Stabilised in its fourth year at 87 per cent occupancy and an achieved rent of $15.50 per square foot a year, about $129 a month for a 10x10 unit and between the web and in-store rates competitors post in Concord today, the facility would earn EBITDA of $330,947 and be worth $4.81 million, or 65 per cent of what it cost. On opening day it would be worth $3.99 million.

The financing cannot bridge that gap. A $7.4 million project financed 50/30/20, a $3.70 million bank first lien, a $2.22 million CDC debenture and $1.48 million of borrower equity, carries debt service of $508,682 against stabilised EBITDA of $330,947, a coverage of 0.65 times. SOP 50 10 8.1 raised the CDC minimum to 1.15 times. At 1.25 times, the facility supports about $3.08 million of debt, so the owner would have to fund $4.32 million, or 58 per cent of the project.

The land is not the problem. At $599,000 it is 8 per cent of the cost, and a free site would leave the value at 70 per cent of cost. The problem is the rent. Value equals cost only at an achieved rent of about $20.69 per square foot a year, $172 a month for a 10x10, above the in-store rates competitors on the same corridor charge and well above the web rates they actually lease at. Charlotte is one of the Sun Belt metros Yardi Matrix names for elevated supply and falling advertised rates, and at least five storage facilities already operate within a short drive of the site on the NC-73 and US-29/601 corridor.

Scope, Basis and Data Verification

This is a model study. UnionMetric was not engaged on this property, did not inspect it, and has no relationship with the seller, the listing broker, any developer or any operator. The subject is a real parcel publicly listed for sale as of the effective date, 26 October 2026, and marketed for self-storage with a plan set under review. It was chosen because it isolates the question most new storage files now raise: what happens when the site is cheap, the zoning fits and the county is growing, but the market's rents have stopped rising. The value indications illustrate method on public data and labelled assumptions. They are not an appraisal, they are not an opinion of market value for any intended user, and they must not be relied on in any transaction involving the property.

The Valuation Problem This Case Is Built On

A new storage facility has to pass the test every development faces: it must be worth what it costs. In a growing suburb with cheap industrial land, that test looks easy. Three things make it hard.

The first is the cost of the building. A climate-controlled, two-storey storage building with an elevator, interior corridors and HVAC is closer to a light commercial building than to a row of garages. Contractor guides put multi-storey storage at $90 to $130 per square foot before land and site work, and Public Storage's own 2025 deliveries cost about $195 per net rentable square foot all in.

The second is rent. Self-storage rents are set by the marginal facility in lease-up, not by the average one. In a market with recent supply, every new facility opens with 50 per cent off the first months, and existing operators match it. Yardi Matrix reports national advertised rates down 1.8 per cent in the year to September 2026, with REITs cutting asking rates 3.3 per cent, and names Charlotte among the metros where elevated recent supply keeps rates falling.

The third is the lease-up. A new storage facility takes about three years to fill. Yardi reports that lease-ups are taking longer, and the newest institutional facility in the Charlotte suburbs, opened in Mooresville in November 2024, was still offering half off the first two months in October 2026.

For a 504 lender there is a fourth. The 504 programme sizes the loan on project cost, so an expensive building produces a large loan. Since 1 October 2026 the CDC must also find 1.15 times coverage on EBITDA against combined debt service. A project that cannot reach that on stabilised income cannot be approved, however good the site.

Method. The cost-versus-value test is the feasibility test for any development. Value upon stabilisation must exceed total project cost by enough to pay a developer for the risk, which storage developers usually express as a development spread of about 200 basis points between yield on cost and the market cap rate. When value falls short of cost, the gap is external obsolescence. No financing structure changes the gap; it only decides who absorbs it.

Project Business Plan

The Project is the development and operation of a Class A climate-controlled self-storage facility on about 4.79 acres at 256 Davidson Highway (NC-73) in Concord, Cabarrus County, a short distance from the Davidson Highway and US-29/601 intersection and about two miles south of I-85. The broker's plan set, submitted to the City of Concord, shows a two-storey building of about 48,600 square feet with about 439 climate-controlled units; the study models about 40,800 net rentable square feet. The facility offers gated, keypad-controlled access, video surveillance, an elevator, interior loading, online rental and payment, and a leasing office with retail packing supplies. It operates with a site manager and part-time help under a third-party management agreement at a 6 per cent fee, with the borrower retaining control of pricing, bank accounts and tenant decisions as the passive-business rules require. The borrower is a newly formed operating company that owns the land and the building and occupies the whole facility as its operating premises. The facility is positioned as the newest climate-controlled product on the NC-73 corridor, priced at the market's web rates rather than its in-store rates, and targets households in Concord's growing northern and western neighbourhoods, renters in new apartments, and small businesses storing inventory and equipment near the I-85 industrial base.

Marketing & Sales Strategy

The launch is built on search and price. Reservations open online three months before the certificate of occupancy, with a first-month offer matched to the corridor's promotions. Channels are the facility's own website, paid search and the storage marketplaces where Concord renters compare prices, because most storage rentals now start online. Business-to-business outreach targets apartment communities and property managers within five miles for move-in referrals, realtors and builders in the county's new subdivisions, and small contractors and online sellers needing climate-controlled inventory space. A tenant protection plan and packing-supply sales are offered at move-in. The built-in acquisition channel is road frontage on NC-73 near US-29/601, where the facility is visible to the traffic that already drives past three competitors.

Amenities

• About 439 climate-controlled units on two storeys
• Elevator and interior corridors
• Covered loading area
• Gated, keypad-controlled access with video surveillance
• Online rental, payment and reservations
• Leasing office with packing and moving supplies
• Tenant protection plan
• NC-73 frontage near the US-29/601 interchange

Subject Site: Listing, Zoning and Open Items

RIPCO Real Estate lists the site at $599,000 as a "Concord Self-Storage Development Site," marked as a price reduction, with a full development plan set of civil engineering, architectural elevations and site plan described as submitted to the City of Concord and pending final administrative approval. No approval record was found in the city's public files. An earlier LoopNet listing for the same address, on the market from April 2020 and now withdrawn, offered the land with owner financing.

The zoning fits. The Concord Development Ordinance lists self-service storage, including mini-warehouses, as permitted with supplemental standards in two districts, cross-referenced to §8.3.6.E, and city case files treat I-1 as a storage district: in July 2024 the City Council unanimously approved rezoning a Winecoff School Road parcel from C-2 to I-1-CD for a mini-warehouse facility. A 2019 storage approval on Highway 29 required brick and stucco facades, a decorative perimeter fence and no outdoor storage. The text of §8.3.6.E, any residential buffer, the FEMA flood zone, stream buffers and utility capacity were not obtained and are confirmed at engagement. No self-storage moratorium or restrictive amendment was found in Concord or the surrounding counties for 2023 to 2026; the moratoria adopted in North Carolina in 2026 were aimed at data centres.

Method. "Pending administrative approval" is a broker's description of a process, not an entitlement. A lender reads it as zoning-compatible and unapproved, and orders a zoning verification letter and the city's plan review status before relying on it. On a by-right site the approval is usually a matter of time; the feasibility question is whether the project should be built once it is approved.

At about 24,300 square feet of building footprint on 208,652 square feet of land, the site has more land than the building needs. The surplus area is not valued separately; a second phase or a flex or contractor-yard use is tested at engagement.

Market Area and Demand

Concord and Cabarrus County are growing faster than almost any suburban market in the Southeast.

The Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia metro reached 2,938,830 people in July 2025, adding 54,122 in a year, fifth in the country by numeric gain. Cabarrus County added 717 multifamily units in 2024, up from 439 in 2023. Eli Lilly's $1 billion plant at The Grounds at Concord carries a state job development agreement for 589 jobs at an average wage of $70,555, alongside Red Bull, Kroger and Ball Corporation investments in the county.

Storage demand is moving the other way. Home sales drive storage move-ins and move-outs, and NAR reports existing-home sales of 3.99 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate in September 2026, with August and September the slowest months of the year and pending contracts at a record low. Extra Space's chief executive described customer demand as steady in mid-2026 with no pickup in the housing market; Public Storage cited slower job growth and housing transactions as weighing on both move-ins and move-outs.

Supply is already in place. StorageCafe put the Charlotte metro at about 7.1 square feet of storage per person in 2024, about the national benchmark, after more than 310,000 square feet of deliveries that year, with average rents down 5 per cent. Yardi Matrix reports Charlotte asking rates down 3.6 per cent from the first quarter of 2025 to the first quarter of 2026, names Charlotte among the heavily supplied Sun Belt metros with continuing rate declines, and lists it as one of four large metros where the construction pipeline grew in August 2026. Three and five-mile supply per capita around the site was not found and is a required engagement item.

Method. Population growth is necessary for a new storage facility and not sufficient. The test is supply per person in the three and five-mile rings, the rents competitors actually lease at, and the share of new supply in the pipeline. A study that leads with county growth and closes on a broker's rent will find demand in any growing suburb, including the ones where new facilities are still discounting two years after opening.

Competitive Supply: Competitor Census

Rates were read from each operator's own website, or from search snippets of those pages or aggregators where noted, on 26 October 2026. Web rates change daily, and "limited units" flags are automated. Net rentable area, unit counts and occupancy were not published for most facilities and are collected at engagement.

Competitor Number 1

Public Storage, Concord Parkway North

This REIT-operated facility is located at 1079 Concord Parkway North, at the intersection of Davidson Highway and US-601, the corridor's anchor location. Public Storage completed its acquisition of National Storage Affiliates in July 2026, so former NSA stores in the area are now under the same owner.

Competitor Number 2

Mr. Storage Concord–Main

This regional operator's facility is located at 195 Davidson Highway, on the subject's own road. A second Mr. Storage location operates at Lowe Avenue NW and Central Drive.

Competitor Number 3

Extra Space Storage, Biscayne Drive

This REIT-operated facility is located at 1480 Biscayne Drive, near Davidson Highway. Its pages show a 10x10 first-floor climate-controlled unit at $89 online and $165 in store, a 10x20 climate-controlled elevator unit at $108 and $199, and a 10x30 climate-controlled unit from $167 to $192 online and $269 to $297 in store.

Competitor Number 4

Extra Space Storage, Winecoff School Road

This facility, established in 1977, is located at 220 Winecoff School Road, Concord. It shows a 10x10 drive-up unit at $89 online and $127 in store, a 10x20 enclosed vehicle space at $166 and $229, and a first-floor climate-controlled 10x10 at $139 in store.

Competitor Number 5

Southern Self Storage, Davidson Highway

This drive-up facility with more than 350 units and about 56,000 square feet is located at 5555 Davidson Highway.

Competitor Number 6

CubeSmart, Webb Road (opening soon)

This new CubeSmart facility at 620 Webb Road, Concord, was listed as opening soon in October 2026. Its size was not found.

The wider Concord and Harrisburg set includes Public Storage on South Ridge Avenue, All About Storage on Wilshire Avenue, Extra Space in Harrisburg, and the Save Green portfolio that MyPlace Self Storage acquired in 2026, including a facility at 7090 Weddington Road; the four-property portfolio was marketed at 66 per cent physical occupancy and $14.82 per square foot of in-place rent. A three-property American Storage South portfolio in Concord and Harrisburg also sold to a regional operator. In Mooresville, Great American Self Storage of Lake Norman, 87,000 rentable square feet and 717 units, opened in November 2024 and was still offering 50 per cent off two months in October 2026, and CubeSmart nearby advertised up to 40 per cent off and the first month free.

The subject's achieved rent of $15.50 per square foot a year sits above the web rates competitors lease at and below their in-store rates, after promotions. It is close to the $14.82 in-place rent of the recently traded Concord portfolio and well below the $22.54 Public Storage realised across its national same-store portfolio in 2025.

Method. A storage rent survey reads the web rate, the in-store rate and the promotion for each unit size on the same day. The in-store rate is the ceiling, the web rate is where new customers sign, and the promotion is what a new facility must match. A pro forma priced at the in-store rate has assumed away the lease-up.

Lease-Up and Revenue Model

Potential rent at full occupancy is $632,400: 40,800 net rentable square feet at $15.50. Stabilised occupancy of 87 per cent sits between the 82.9 per cent Yardi Matrix measured for CMBS-financed stores in the South and the 90.8 per cent for REIT-owned stores in June 2026; third-party-managed stores averaged 86.3 per cent. Lease-up to stabilisation takes about 36 months, the period operators and Extra Space's own stabilisation definition use. Ancillary income of 8 per cent of rent covers a tenant protection plan, administration and late fees and merchandise; Public Storage's late charges and administration fees alone were 3.4 per cent of same-store revenue, and Extra Space's tenant insurance revenue was about a tenth of total revenue.

Stabilised Operating Statement, Year 4

The expense ratio of 42.0 per cent sits well above Extra Space's 28.8 per cent same-store ratio for 2025 and Public Storage's 21.8 per cent direct cost ratio, because a single 40,800-square-foot facility carries a management fee and a site manager on a revenue base a fraction of a REIT store's, and pays property tax at about 11 per cent of revenue, as the REITs do. Public Storage's own July 2026 release compares its 78 per cent same-store direct margin with National Storage Affiliates' historical 70 per cent; a small independent should expect less than either.

Highest and Best Use

As though vacant, the site is zoned I-1, with self-storage permitted subject to supplemental standards, and is physically suited to light industrial, flex, contractor and storage uses on 4.79 acres with arterial frontage. Storage is legally permissible and physically possible. It is not financially feasible at 2026 construction cost: a facility built on this land is worth about two-thirds of what it costs. Light industrial and flex development, or holding the land until storage rents recover, are the uses the evidence supports. The highest and best use of the site as though vacant is light industrial or flex development, or a hold for future storage development as rents permit.

Method. Cheap land changes how a highest and best use test reads. When the site is a small share of the cost, the land price cannot be blamed for the gap and cannot close it. The test then turns entirely on whether the building, at today's cost, earns a return in today's rents, and the answer is the market's statement about the building, not the site.

Development Budget and Cost Approach

The building is carried at $105 per gross square foot, in the lower half of the $90 to $130 range contractor guides give for multi-storey storage. The all-in cost of $181 per net rentable square foot sits below Public Storage's 2025 deliveries at about $195 and close to its current pipeline at about $173. The budget is not inflated to make the test fail; a local contractor bid replaces it at engagement.

The improvements are new, so physical and functional depreciation are nil. The external obsolescence is measured, not assumed: it is the gap between what the facility costs and what its income is worth. The yield on cost explains it. At 4.39 per cent, the project earns less than the 6.97 per cent effective rate on the CDC debenture that would finance it.

Sales Comparison: The Evidence That Exists

No Charlotte-metro self-storage sale since 2023 was found with a published price. The trades that exist show where buyers are active and what they buy, not what they pay.

The subject's stabilised value of $117.89 per net rentable square foot sits well below the one priced certificate-of-occupancy sale found, in a Pacific Northwest market with higher rents. The more telling evidence is that lease-up facilities are trading in the Charlotte metro: a buyer who wants the Concord demand can buy a facility already built and partly leased, at a price that reflects today's rents rather than today's construction cost. North Carolina deed excise stamps record the price of every sale at $2 per $1,000, and the appraiser reads them for each trade above.

Income Approach: Value Upon Stabilisation

Year 4 NOI of $324,827 capitalised at 6.75 per cent gives $4,812,300, rounded to $4,810,000, or $117.89 per net rentable square foot. A rate of 6.00 per cent would give $5.41 million; 7.50 per cent, $4.33 million. Neither comes within $2 million of the cost.

The 504 borrower's band of investment, 9.27 per cent, sits well above the concluded rate. The market prices stabilised storage income on the expectations of institutional and private buyers with cheaper capital; a borrower financing 80 per cent of a new building at today's rates cannot build to those prices.

Value Upon Completion

The discount rate of 8.75 per cent is 200 basis points above the overall rate, for the risk that lease-up runs slower than modelled. Self-storage appraisal practice, as documented in SEC-filed appraisals, reaches the value upon completion by deducting rent loss, carrying costs and an entrepreneurial profit, historically about 15 per cent of total development cost, from the stabilised value. Here there is no profit to deduct.

SBA 504 Programme Compliance

Every 504 and SOP 50 10 8.1 provision above comes from CDC rate pages and lender summaries rather than the SOP text, and is read against the 1 October 2026 version before commitment.

Project Cost Estimate and Loan Assumptions

Location: 256 Davidson Highway, Concord, NC 28027 | Units: 439 | Size: 48,600 GSF, 40,800 NRSF | Site: 4.79 acres

Source: Listing data, City of Concord, REIT filings, 2026 published construction cost ranges, CDC rate pages, UnionMetric

Five-Year Pro Forma and Debt Service Coverage

Launch marketing adds $30,000 in Year 1 and $15,000 in Year 2. Rents are held flat to stabilisation and rise 2 per cent in Year 5; fixed expenses rise 3 per cent from Year 5. The facility never covers its debt in the projection period. The operating shortfall against debt service over the first three years alone is $1.19 million.

Break-Even and Required Performance

To clear the CDC's 1.15 times, the facility would have to lease every unit at an achieved rent of about $192 a month for a 10x10, above the highest in-store climate-controlled rate posted on the corridor and more than double the web rates competitors actually lease at.

Sensitivity Analysis

No reasonable single change makes the project feasible. Even rents at the level where value equals cost leave coverage below 1.00 times, because a 504 structure at 80 per cent leverage needs a yield well above the market cap rate to cover its own debt.

Loan Sizing: What Each Test Allows

The 504 programme would lend $5.9 million because the project costs $7.4 million. The income carries about $3.1 million at the coverage a lender expects, and the collateral on opening day is worth two-thirds of the combined debt.

What Would Work

The demand in Concord is real and growing. What the evidence does not support is a new climate-controlled building financed at 80 per cent of its cost while Charlotte rents are still falling.

Buying existing supply is the most direct answer. Lease-up facilities are trading in the Charlotte metro, including a 2025-built Belmont facility sold at 30 per cent occupancy and a recently traded Concord portfolio marketed at 66 per cent occupancy. A buyer who acquires partly leased product at a price set by today's rents avoids paying today's construction cost, and an SBA 7(a) or 504 acquisition can be sized on that price.

A lower-cost product narrows the gap. Single-storey drive-up storage costs roughly half as much per square foot to build as multi-storey climate-controlled space, though it rents for less; the site's surplus land makes a phased, mixed product possible, tested against drive-up rents of about $89 to $127 a month for a 10x10 on the corridor.

Waiting is a legitimate answer. Yardi reports that storage starts fell sharply in 2026 and expects new supply to fall to 1.7 per cent of stock by 2028. If rents recover as deliveries slow, the same site and the same building could pass the test. The land, at $599,000, is cheap enough to hold.

Where the Feasibility Conclusion and the Value Conclusion Meet

The feasibility analysis says the facility would cover its debt 0.65 times at stabilisation, below the CDC's new 1.15 times minimum. The valuation says it would be worth 65 per cent of its cost. They are the same finding seen from two sides: achieved rents of $15.50 per square foot a year produce income that supports about $118 per net rentable square foot of value and about $75 of debt, against a cost of $181. The land is 8 per cent of the cost and cannot explain or close the gap; the building's cost against the market's rents decides it. The determination is that the project is not feasible at 2026 construction cost and Charlotte rents under SBA 504.

Risk Factors

The cost-value gap is decisive. No assumption in the reasonable range closes it.

Charlotte rents are still falling. Yardi names Charlotte among the supplied Sun Belt metros with continuing advertised rate declines, and its construction pipeline grew in August 2026.

The corridor is crowded. Public Storage, Mr. Storage, Extra Space and Southern Self Storage operate on the same roads, and a new CubeSmart is opening in Concord.

Lease-ups are taking longer. The newest facility in the Charlotte suburbs was still discounting two years after opening.

Housing turnover is at a low. Existing-home sales and pending contracts are near record lows, and storage move-ins follow moves.

The entitlement is unconfirmed. The plan set is described as pending approval, and no city record was found.

The site may not be vacant. The tax record carries $136,400 of improvements.

The rules are summarised, not read. Every 504 and SOP 50 10 8.1 provision used here comes from secondary sources, including the equity tier for storage.

Conditions and Limitations

This is a model study prepared to illustrate feasibility and valuation method on a publicly listed site. It is not an appraisal, it was not prepared under an engagement, it was not prepared for any intended user other than the readers of this site, and no one should rely on it for any decision about the property. UnionMetric did not inspect the site or communicate with its owner, the listing broker, any developer, any operator or the City of Concord.

The study relies on the extraordinary assumptions that the site is about 4.79 acres, that self-storage is permitted on it and the marketed plan set will be approved, that utilities are available at the site, that the building can be built to the stated budget and schedule, and that the 504 provisions apply as summarised in the cited sources. The prospective values rest on the extraordinary assumptions that the facility is completed as described and that lease-up follows the stated model. Net rentable area, achieved rent, occupancy, concessions, ancillary income, expenses, the construction budget, capitalisation and discount rates and the interest rates are UnionMetric assumptions. Figures are rounded, and totals may differ slightly from the sum of their parts.

What the Lender Received

In an engagement on this file, the lender would receive:

• A zoning verification letter and the City of Concord's plan review status, with the text of the supplemental standards that apply
• A survey, title commitment, Phase I environmental site assessment and demolition scope for the existing improvements, with FEMA, stream buffer and utility determinations
• A three and five-mile supply study with storage square feet per person, the construction pipeline and dated web, in-store and promotional rates for every competitor by unit size
• A lease-up model stating monthly absorption and concessions, tested against the newest facilities in the market
• A contractor bid and the city's system development fees
• An appraisal by a state-certified general appraiser reporting the as-is land value and the prospective values upon completion and upon stabilisation
• The cost-versus-value test, the required-performance analysis and loan sizing against project cost, the CDC's 1.15x test and value, with a written CDC ruling on the equity tier
• A data verification register separating primary-verified, secondary and modelled figures

To discuss a self-storage project, an SBA 504 new build or any storage acquisition, request a feasibility study.

Sources

• 256 Davidson Highway, Concord, NC, Concord Self-Storage Development Site, RIPCO Real Estate, page modified 26 August 2026
• 256 Davidson Hwy, Concord, NC, listing 19317260, LoopNet, on market from 23 April 2020, accessed October 2026
• Concord Development Ordinance, Articles 8 and 10, City of Concord
• SUP-10-19 staff report, City of Concord Planning and Zoning Commission, 17 December 2019
• City Council agenda packet and minutes, Z(CD)-23-23, City of Concord, 11 July 2024
• QuickFacts: Concord city and Cabarrus County, North Carolina, U.S. Census Bureau, V2025
• 2025 Trends Report, Cabarrus County
• Governor announces nearly 600 jobs as Lilly selects Cabarrus County, North Carolina Department of Commerce, 28 January 2022
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• North Carolina four-property self-storage acquisition, MyPlace Self Storage, 2026
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• Superior Capital Advisors brokers sale of 559-unit Class A new construction self-storage facility, 13 October 2026
• Self-storage real estate acquisitions and sales, August and November 2025 and August 2026, Inside Self Storage
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• Cost to build self-storage, Mako Steel, 2025
• Liberty Self-Stor, Inc., Form S-4/A, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, 1999
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