SBA 7(a) Child Care Acquisition Case Study: Lightbridge Academy of Manassas, Virginia, and Why a Two-Year-Old Centre Has No History to Lend Against

Study at a Glance

Determination

The listing discloses no revenue, enrollment or lease, so this study does not pretend to know what the centre earns. It builds a benchmark profile from Virginia's staffing ratios, Northern Virginia tuition and rents, Washington-area wages and the franchise's published fees, values the centre at a range of occupancies, and then asks what occupancy the asking price requires.

A 160-seat centre at full occupancy and Northern Virginia tuition would bill about $3.07 million a year, close to the franchise system's reported average for mature centres. But this centre opened in 2024. Industry evidence shows young centres take two to three years to fill, and national operators reported falling occupancy through 2025 and 2026. At a current run-rate of 70 per cent, 112 children, the centre earns EBITDA of about $131,000 after paying teachers to Virginia's ratios, a director and assistant director, rent of about $30 a square foot, a 7 per cent royalty and a 2 per cent brand fund. It breaks even at about 59 per cent. In its first full fiscal year, at an estimated 55 per cent, it would have lost money.

That history is the problem. SOP 50 10 8.1 requires an acquisition loan to cover its debt 1.25 times on the most recent fiscal year or the average of the last two, and does not allow projections. At the $1,750,000 asking price, with no real estate, the whole loan is business debt amortised over ten years. A 90 per cent loan of about $1.81 million carries debt service of $280,640 and needs EBITDA of about $350,800, which the centre would reach only at about 89 per cent occupancy. And the debt is capped at an independent business valuation: at a 3.5 times multiple of EBITDA, the centre is worth about $458,000 at 70 per cent and about $1.08 million at 85 per cent. To be worth $1.75 million at that multiple, it would have to run full.

The determination is that the acquisition is not financeable under SBA 7(a) at the asking price on the centre's history. At verified historical occupancy of 70 per cent the centre supports a loan of about $458,000, capped by its valuation, and a buyer at the asking price would fund about 77 per cent of the project. The price describes the centre the franchisor expects this to become, and a buyer who pays it is paying in advance for occupancy the centre has not yet earned.

Scope, Basis and Data Verification

This is a model study. UnionMetric was not engaged on this business, did not inspect the centre, and has no relationship with the franchisor, the seller, any broker, the landlord or any buyer. The subject is a real child care centre listed for sale on BizBuySell and BizQuest in 2026 and promoted by its franchisor as an immediate ownership opportunity. It was chosen because it puts the young-centre question in its clearest form: a purpose-built franchise centre in a strong family market, a price consistent with mature system revenue, a licence that cannot be transferred, a building the buyer does not own, and a local economy absorbing the region's largest share of federal job cuts. The value indications illustrate method on public data and labelled assumptions. They are not a business valuation, they are not an opinion of value for any intended user, and they must not be relied on in any transaction involving the business.

The Valuation Problem This Case Is Built On

A child care centre's cost is mostly fixed by law and its revenue is mostly decided by occupancy. Virginia requires one adult for every four infants, one for every five young toddlers, one for every eight two-year-olds and one for every ten children aged three to school age. Rent, the director and the building's running costs do not fall when classrooms are half full. Each additional child adds tuition with little added cost until a new teacher is needed, so a centre's margin swings sharply around a breakeven occupancy.

Franchise economics make the swing visible. Primrose's 2026 disclosure, as reported, shows its top-occupancy schools averaging about $3.59 million of revenue at 94 per cent occupancy and its bottom group about $1.91 million at 52 per cent. Kiddie Academy's bottom-quarter academies averaged about $80,000 of gross profit, against more than $1 million at the top. KinderCare, the largest U.S. operator, reported same-centre occupancy of 67.8 per cent for fiscal 2025 and 64.5 per cent in its fourth quarter, and closed 49 centres in one quarter of 2026.

A young centre's price is usually set on what the system's mature centres earn. Its loan, under SOP 50 10 8.1, is set on what this centre has already earned. Between the two sits the ramp-up, and the buyer pays for it.

For a business-only acquisition there is a further constraint. With no real estate, the entire loan is amortised over ten years, and total debt is capped at an independent business valuation that rests on the same historical earnings.

Method. On a child care acquisition the first document is the enrollment ledger: children enrolled by classroom, by month, against licensed capacity, with tuition by age. From it the analyst builds staffing from the ratios, prices it at local wages, and finds the occupancy at which the centre breaks even and the occupancy at which it carries debt. A price that needs more occupancy than the ledger shows is a price for the future.

Project Business Plan

The Project is the acquisition and continued operation of Lightbridge Academy of Manassas, a franchise early childhood education centre at 9855 Liberia Avenue in Manassas, opened in 2024 in a purpose-built facility and licensed by the Virginia Department of Education for about 160 children from six months to twelve years. The centre offers infant, toddler, preschool and pre-kindergarten classrooms, summer camp and back-up care, and opens from 6:30 am to 6:30 pm on weekdays. It is staffed by a director, an assistant director, lead and assistant teachers to Virginia's ratios, a cook and administrative support (modelled). The buyer acquires the operating business, assumes or renews the building lease, obtains franchisor approval and a new franchise agreement, and applies to the Department of Education for its own licence, because a Virginia child care licence is issued to a specific person and cannot be transferred. The centre is positioned as a premium branded option for dual-income families in Manassas and western Prince William County, with parent communication technology and a structured curriculum, priced in the upper half of the local market, and targets families commuting to Northern Virginia, Washington and the Route 28 and I-66 employment corridors.

Marketing & Sales Strategy

The strategy is to fill the infant and toddler rooms first, because younger children enrol for longer and move up into the centre's own preschool classrooms. Tours are booked through the franchise website, local search and parent review platforms, and a waiting list is kept by age group with deposits. Families are reached through hospitals and obstetric practices, new-home communities in Gainesville, Bristow and Manassas, and employers on the Route 28 corridor offering child care benefits; the centre's back-up care programme is sold to employers directly. Enrolment specialists follow every tour with an offer timed to the opening of a specific classroom. The built-in acquisition channel is the classroom ladder: every infant enrolled today is a toddler, a two-year-old and a pre-kindergarten child over the next four years.

Amenities

• Purpose-built centre opened in 2024
• Infant, toddler, preschool and pre-kindergarten classrooms
• Summer camp and back-up care programmes
• Open 6:30 am to 6:30 pm, Monday to Friday
• Franchise curriculum and parent communication technology
• Licensed for about 160 children from six months to twelve years

Subject Business: Listing, Licence and Open Items

The centre is listed on BizBuySell and BizQuest as a turnkey child care franchise at $1,750,000, and promoted on the franchisor's resale page as an "OPEN | Immediate Ownership Opportunity". The franchisor describes its resales as corporately owned franchise resales, which suggests it is the seller; that is an inference.

A licence that cannot be found in a 2026 directory and a conditional licence that expired in 2024 are not, on their own, evidence of a problem; a regular licence was presumably issued after the conditional period. They are the first documents a lender asks for.

The licence does not transfer. Under 8VAC20-821, effective 1 February 2026, a licence "is issued to a specific person" and "is not transferable from one person to another"; no modification may change the person to whom it was granted; and no applicant may begin operations before being issued a licence or a conditional licence. The buyer's entity applies with background checks, a demonstration of financial responsibility, and fire and health inspections, and may receive a conditional licence for up to six months. The fee for a two-year licence for 76 to 200 children is $280. Closing is timed to the buyer's licence.

The franchise transfer requires franchisor consent. Lightbridge's royalty is 7 per cent of gross revenue, reduced to 4 per cent in the first six months, per the franchisor's citation of its 2026 disclosure; secondary sources report a 2 per cent brand fund and a transfer fee of 25 per cent of the initial franchise fee. The current disclosure document, the transfer fee and any required upgrades are read at engagement.

Method. A young centre carries two licences into a sale, the state's and the franchisor's, and neither transfers by itself. A lender conditions closing on the buyer's state licence and the franchisor's written approval, and reads the lease for an assignment clause and a term at least as long as the loan.

Market Area and Demand

Western Prince William County is a growing, young, commuter market.

Demand is structural, and it is also softening. VDOE's report to the General Assembly finds Virginia short of at least 140,000 child care slots for working families. Against that, U.S. births fell to 3,612,012 in 2025, a record-low general fertility rate of 53.2, with rates rising only among parents over 30. And Prince William has absorbed the sharpest federal workforce reductions in the region.

A two-parent household that loses a federal job often loses the need for full-time care before it loses the ability to pay for it. No measured decline in Northern Virginia centre enrollment was found, and Fairfax County child care buildings remain fully occupied, but the risk is concentrated in exactly the commuter households this centre serves.

Virginia's subsidy policy is moving the other way. The 2026 to 2028 budget is designed to eliminate the Child Care Subsidy Program waiting list, in part by redirecting about $136.7 million of unused Virginia Preschool Initiative funding. Fairfax County's subsidy rate for a centre infant, $94 a day from August 2023, sits inside the private-pay range, so subsidy enrolment need not dilute revenue; the Prince William rate is confirmed at engagement.

Method. Child care demand is measured in children under five and the share of households with all parents working, and it is tested against the supply of licensed seats and the trend in births. A study that cites a statewide shortage and stops there has not tested whether the families in a three-mile radius will pay this centre's tuition after a federal job loss.

Competitive Supply: Competitor Census

Licensed capacity comes from a licensing-data mirror and is confirmed with VDOE at engagement. None of the centres below publishes tuition on its own website.

Competitor Number 1

The Goddard School – Gainesville/Haymarket

This franchise school is located at 7801 Heritage Village Plaza, Gainesville, licensed for 186 children.

Competitor Number 2

Celebree School of Bristow

This franchise school is located at 10368 Bristow Center Drive, Bristow, licensed for 211 children.

Competitor Number 3

Primrose School of Bristow and Kiddie Academy of Gainesville

These franchise schools are licensed for 184 and 182 children respectively.

Competitor Number 4

KinderCare, Bristow

KinderCare operates two Bristow centres, licensed for 150 and 125 children.

Competitor Number 5

Everbrook Academy and The Learning Experience, Bristow

These branded centres are licensed for 136 and 157 children; The Learning Experience's Gainesville building sold as a net-lease investment for $7.03 million at a 7.00 per cent cap rate in January 2026.

Competitor Number 6

Independent centres

Willowcreek Academy, 8171 Linton Hall Road, Gainesville (140 children) and Tiny City Academy, 14680 Gap Way, Gainesville (124 children) operate as independents.

A centre in this market competes against at least eight branded centres of 125 to 211 seats within a short drive, most in purpose-built freestanding buildings. Large chains are consolidating: KinderCare closed 49 centres in the second quarter of 2026, and Bright Horizons cut its centre count from 1,010 at the end of 2025 to 988 by mid-2026.

The subject's modelled tuition sits at the lower end of the Fairfax range, reflecting Prince William's lower price levels and a market where national operators are raising tuition while losing enrollment: KinderCare's centre revenue fell 1.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2026, with 4.0 per cent lower enrollment partly offset by 2.6 per cent higher tuition.

Benchmark Operating Profile at 70% Occupancy

Teaching staff are built from Virginia's ratios for each classroom, with 25 per cent added to cover a 12-hour day, breaks and absences, at an average of $19.50 an hour; BLS reported a mean of $17.94 for childcare workers in the Washington metro in May 2023, and the national median rose 15 per cent between May 2023 and May 2025. Labour in total is about half of revenue. Rent is modelled at $30 a square foot, close to Prince William's $28.74 asking average and below the $36.00 average on Northern Virginia child care leases signed since 2023; building size was not disclosed. CACFP reimburses only $0.45 a lunch for children in the paid category, so it offsets little food cost at a private-pay centre.

Occupancy Decides Everything

Every percentage point of occupancy adds about $11,900 of EBITDA, because tuition rises faster than the teachers it requires. Below about 59 per cent the centre loses money; above it, profit builds quickly. The asking price of $1,750,000 corresponds, at 3.5 times EBITDA, to occupancy above 100 per cent.

Method. On a business that earns most of its profit from its last few enrolments, the valuation is a curve, not a point. The study shows value at each occupancy and asks the seller which point the books support, rather than picking one and calling it the value.

Valuation

The concluded multiple of 3.5 times EBITDA sits between BizBuySell's average and upper quartile, because the centre is larger, branded and purpose-built, and below the top because its earnings are young, it leases its building and it pays 9 per cent of revenue to its franchisor. EBITDA here is after a paid director, so it is close to discretionary earnings for an absentee owner. The furniture, fixtures, equipment and playground of a 2024 centre are modelled at about $250,000, which sets a floor under the business value whatever its earnings.

Net-lease cap rates describe the building, which the buyer does not acquire. A landlord selling this building as a net-lease investment would price the lease from the operator; the operator's own value rests on what remains after paying it.

SBA Programme Compliance Under SOP 50 10 8.1

Every SOP 50 10 8.1 provision above comes from NAGGL, lender and adviser summaries; the SOP text is read before commitment. The FY2027 fee notice sets the upfront fee at 3 per cent of the guaranteed portion for loans of $150,001 to $700,000 and 3.5 per cent up to $1 million guaranteed above that. Prime was 7.00 per cent in October 2026.

Project Cost Estimate and Loan Assumptions (at the Asking Price)

Location: 9855 Liberia Avenue, Manassas, VA 20110 | Licensed capacity: 160 | Real estate: leased

Source: Listing data, VDOE, BLS, franchisor disclosure as cited, NAGGL summary of the FY2027 fee notice, UnionMetric

The loan in this table assumes the lender accepts a fiscal year at 70 per cent occupancy as history. If the most recent fiscal year shows a loss, no SBA acquisition loan is available until it does not.

Five-Year Pro Forma and Coverage

Figures are at 2026 prices, with tuition increases assumed to offset wage and rent growth. The ramp follows a typical young centre reaching about 85 per cent in its fifth or sixth year.

Even if the centre fills as the franchise system's better schools have, a loan sized to the asking price never reaches 1.25 times coverage in the projection period. A loan sized to the centre's value at 70 per cent is comfortable, and leaves the buyer funding three-quarters of the price.

The Asking Price Test

The asking price is consistent with the system's mature centres, not with this one. The centre's enrollment ledger, tuition schedule, payroll register, lease and profit and loss statements since opening answer the question, and a lender should ask for them before ordering any third-party report.

Method. When a seller prices a young business on what its mature peers earn, solve for the occupancy the price requires and set it beside the occupancy the centre has reached. The gap is the ramp-up the buyer is being asked to buy in advance, and under Appendix 15 it must be paid for with equity, seller financing on full standby, or time.

Sensitivity Analysis at 70% Occupancy

A 5 per cent change in tuition or a 10 per cent change in wages moves EBITDA by two-thirds. NAEYC's 2026 survey found 68 per cent of programmes facing higher liability insurance costs, and nearly two-thirds raising wages in 2025; Virginia data show 31 per cent of centre teachers left between fall 2024 and spring 2025.

What Would Work

The centre may well become worth its price. What the evidence does not support is paying for that future with an SBA loan sized to it today.

A price set on verified occupancy is the direct answer. At 70 per cent the centre is worth about $458,000; at 80 per cent, about $874,000.

An earn-out or seller note on full standby bridges the gap. The franchisor, as seller, is best placed to carry the ramp-up risk it is pricing in, and full-standby seller debt may count toward the buyer's equity.

Time is the third answer. Once the centre has a fiscal year at 80 per cent or more on file, the same SBA programme will lend roughly $875,000 against it.

Where the Feasibility Conclusion and the Value Conclusion Meet

The valuation says the centre is worth about $458,000 at its modelled current occupancy of 70 per cent and about $1.08 million at 85 per cent, and that the asking price corresponds to a centre running full. The feasibility analysis says SBA debt is limited by the centre's history, which for a 2024 opening includes at least one year below breakeven, and that a loan sized to the asking price would not reach 1.25 times coverage even if the centre filled to 85 per cent. They meet in occupancy: every dollar of the price above the value of the occupancy already achieved is a payment for children not yet enrolled. The determination is that the acquisition is not financeable under SBA 7(a) at the asking price on the centre's history, and that a price set on verified occupancy, a seller-carried bridge, or two fiscal years of earnings would change that answer.

Risk Factors

The history is short. A centre opened in 2024 has at most one full fiscal year, and it was a ramp-up year.

Occupancy decides the outcome. The centre loses money below about 59 per cent and earns most of its value above 80.

Federal job cuts fall on this market. Prince William has absorbed the region's sharpest reduction in government and contractor jobs.

Births are at a record low. Fewer young children reach the infant rooms that feed a centre's enrollment.

The licence does not transfer. The buyer must obtain its own licence before operating.

The building is leased. The lease term, rent, escalations and assignment rights are unknown, and the lease must cover the loan term.

Labour is scarce and rising. Teacher turnover runs near a third a year and wages have risen sharply.

Liability insurance is harder to buy. Premiums are rising and some insurers have stopped covering child care.

Franchise fees are fixed on revenue. Nine per cent of revenue goes to the franchisor before the centre earns a profit.

The record conflicts. Capacity, jurisdiction and licence status differ across sources.

The rules are summarised, not read. Every SOP 50 10 8.1 provision used here comes from secondary sources.

Conditions and Limitations

This is a model study prepared to illustrate feasibility and valuation method on a publicly listed business. It is not a business valuation or an appraisal, it was not prepared under an engagement, it was not prepared for any intended user other than the readers of this site, and no one should rely on it for any decision about the business. UnionMetric did not inspect the centre, review its books, lease or licence, or communicate with the franchisor, the seller, any broker, the landlord, VDOE or any buyer.

The study relies on the extraordinary assumptions that the centre holds a valid licence for about 160 children; that it leases a building of about 11,000 SF at about $35 a square foot including building charges; that the franchise agreement can be transferred on current royalty and fund terms; that the staff remain after closing; and that the SOP 50 10 8.1 provisions apply as summarised in the cited sources. If any proves false, the conclusions may change. The classroom mix, tuition, occupancy, staffing, expenses, building size and rent, FF&E value, multiple and interest rate are UnionMetric assumptions. Figures are rounded, and totals may differ slightly from the sum of their parts.

What the Lender Received

In an engagement on this file, the lender would receive:

• A diligence request built around the asking price test: monthly enrollment by classroom against capacity since opening, the tuition schedule, the payroll register, profit and loss statements and tax returns
• The current VDOE licence, all inspection reports since 2024, VQB5 status and subsidy participation
• The lease, with term, options, rent, escalations, assignment clause and landlord consent
• The franchise disclosure document, the transfer terms and the franchisor's written approval process
• A three and five-mile market study with children under five, dual-income households, competitor capacity, tuition and waiting lists, and the effect of federal workforce reductions
• A credentialed business valuation with the allocation to FF&E and goodwill
• The Appendix 15 coverage test on historical earnings, the debt cap at the valuation, and sensitivity to occupancy, tuition, wages and rent
• A data verification register separating primary-verified, secondary and modelled figures

To discuss a child care centre, an early education franchise or any change-of-ownership file, request a feasibility study.

Sources

• Turnkey Child Care Franchise in Manassas, Virginia, BizBuySell listing 2537804, and BizQuest listing, accessed October 2026
• Childcare franchises for sale and franchise location opportunities, Lightbridge Academy, 18 August 2026
• Lightbridge Academy of Manassas, centre page, Lightbridge Academy, accessed October 2026
• Child day centre facility record 1109638, Virginia Department of Social Services facility search, 2024
• 8VAC20-821, Child Day Program Licensing Procedures, effective 1 February 2026, Virginia Administrative Code
• 8VAC20-780-350, Staff-to-children ratio and group size requirements, Virginia Administrative Code
• QuickFacts: Prince William County, Virginia, U.S. Census Bureau, V2025
• Child care cost and availability report to the General Assembly, Virginia Department of Education, as reported by Virginia Mercury, 20 October 2026
• Federal job losses in the region, Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments, 27 April 2026
• County unemployment data, Virginia Department of Workforce Development and Advancement, via WTOP, 20 April 2026
• Federal workforce and Prince William County employment coverage, Prince William Times, 2025 and 2026
• Births: Provisional data for 2025, NCHS Data Brief No. 571, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 21 October 2026
• Child care rates, Child Care Aware and Referral, Fairfax County, Fall 2025
• Occupational Employment and Wages, childcare workers, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, May 2023 and May 2025
• Child and Adult Care Food Program reimbursement rates, U.S. Department of Agriculture, July 2025 and July 2026
• KinderCare Learning Companies, Form 8-K results releases, March and August 2026, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
• Bright Horizons Family Solutions, Form 8-K results releases, February and August 2026, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
• Primrose, Goddard, Kiddie Academy and The Learning Experience franchise disclosure summaries, franchise data publications, 2025 and 2026
• Day Care and Child Care Business Valuation Benchmarks, BizBuySell, accessed October 2026
• Early Education and Childcare Report, 2026 Special Edition, Serafin Real Estate, October 2026
• Childcare centre licensing records for Gainesville and Bristow, licensing data mirror, accessed October 2026
• A Year of Tough Choices, National Association for the Education of Young Children, 2026
• Child care subsidy and preschool budget coverage, VPM, 2025 and 2026
• Two Major SBA Announcements: Issuance of SOP 50 10 8.1, National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders, August 2026
• SBA issues notices announcing FY 2027 7(a) and 504 loan program fees, National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders, 4 September 2026
• SOP 50 10 8.1 reshapes change-of-ownership lending, WBD, 2026
• Table of Size Standards, U.S. Small Business Administration
• Uniform Standards of Professional Appraisal Practice, The Appraisal Foundation, current edition